CRU Case Study: Aluminium Beverage Can Sheet Market Outlook 2023

Autor: Matthew Abrams
Research Analyst at CRU

The last nine months have been challenging after the demand boom of the pandemic period. Trade flows and supply chains are adjusting to the macroeconomic-induced slowdown which affects both near and long-term growth. With macro concerns hindering demand, an over-bought market in 2022 H2 lingered into 2023 H1; demographics and new launches still ring positive through the forecast period.

China has been adjusted lower due to a slower than expected restart following their zero Covid-19 policies. Exports are being challenged in two directions with exports of empty cans to North America ceasing and exported can stock volumes slowing due to softening demand. These near-term issues will have long lasting affects as long term consumption forecast is lowered significantly.
North America can production has been adjusted lower due to weakness in 2022 Q4 which caused inventories to build. This inventory build is still an issue for the supply chain and the fallout has tempered demand expectations for the rest of the forecast period.

Growth expectations for Asia ex China have also been hampered by macroeconomic challenges and continued high inflation in those countries. The return to travel for countries such as Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam is the largest upside risk to this forecast. Europe had felt the economic pains of inflation earlier due to proximity to the war in Ukraine. The outlook has yet to improve but the region sees no further reductions in this report.